Riding the AI tsunami

In the ever-evolving landscape of technology, we often turn to wave analogies to describe the profound shifts that reshape our world. From the industrial revolution to the digital era, these waves have propelled us into new frontiers. Now, on the horizon, there's another wave building—the wave of generative AI, as envisioned by Mustafa Suleyman, the CEO and co-founder of Inflection AI and a venture partner at Greylock Partners.

Suleyman, who previously co-founded the groundbreaking AI lab DeepMind, brings a wealth of experience and insight to the table. His new book, "The Coming Wave," is poised to dive deep into the transformative potential of generative AI and what it means for our future.

A Glimpse Into the Third Wave

To put this wave in context, let's take a step back. In 1980, Alvin Toffler released "The Third Wave," a book that painted a picture of a post-industrial society. Toffler's vision coined the term "Information Age" to describe this new wave of human progress. Now, Mustafa Suleyman's "The Coming Wave" aims to pick up where Toffler left off.

Generative AI: The Next Frontier

In a recent Business Insider article, Suleyman shared his insights into the impending wave of generative AI. He anticipates that this technology will soon become ubiquitous, permeating our daily lives in ways we can hardly imagine.

But what exactly is generative AI? At its core, it's a technology that can create, compose, or generate content, whether it's text, images, or even music, with minimal human intervention. Think of it as a digital creative genius that can craft stories, design graphics, or even compose symphonies.

Your Personal AI Chief-of-Staff

Suleyman's vision of the future is particularly intriguing. He predicts that within the next five years, every individual will have access to a personal AI assistant. Not just any assistant, but a "personal chief-of-staff" powered by generative AI. Imagine having a digital companion who knows you inside out, possesses superhuman intelligence, and understands your unique personal history.

This AI chief-of-staff won't just schedule meetings or answer basic questions. It will anticipate your needs, craft emails in your writing style, generate creative content tailored to your tastes, and even assist with complex tasks like financial planning or medical research. In essence, it becomes an indispensable part of your daily life, seamlessly integrating into your routines.

Navigating Potential Risks

While the prospects of generative AI are undeniably exciting, Suleyman also sounds a note of caution. He acknowledges the potential risks that AI, particularly when combined with synthetic biology, can pose. It's a reminder that as we ride this technological wave, we must tread carefully and consider the ethical and societal implications.

Riding the Wave of Generative AI

As we look to the horizon, Mustafa Suleyman's vision of a world where generative AI becomes an integral part of our lives sparks our imagination. The coming wave promises not just convenience but a transformation in how we work, create, and connect. With the potential for an AI personal assistant that's both super-smart and deeply attuned to our individuality, we stand on the cusp of an exciting new era in technology—one that may redefine what it means to have a digital companion. But let's not forget, as we surf this wave of innovation, to navigate the challenges and responsibilities that come with it, ensuring that we harness the power of AI for the greater good.

This prediction aligns with a projection I made some time ago. I suggested that in just a few years, an application like ChatGPT or a comparable system could evolve into something reminiscent of Samantha, the AI character from the 2013 film "Her." ChatGPT has already demonstrated certain functionalities akin to Samantha's capabilities: it can recall past conversations, generate insights from those interactions, and offer valuable advice and support, all while engaging with numerous users simultaneously.

Suleyman's present venture is responsible for creating "Pi," short for "personal intelligence." This "personal AI" is meticulously crafted to offer support, intelligence, and constant availability to its users. It serves as a coach, confidant, creative collaborator, sounding board, and assistant, bearing a striking resemblance to Samantha from the movie "Her." Remarkably, the pace at which generative AI, like Pi, is advancing has exceeded my expectations. Indeed, it seems that every aspect of generative AI is progressing rapidly.

The competition in the realm of AI assistants is becoming increasingly intense, especially with the emergence of Chinese players in the field. According to an article in MIT Technology Review, Baidu's "Ernie Bot" garnered an astounding 1 million users within just 19 hours of its recent public debut. Subsequently, at least four more Chinese companies have introduced their own sizeable language model (LLM) chatbot offerings into the market.

Intelligence as a Commodity

In the current Information Age, both information and computing have transformed into readily available commodities, accessible at a low cost. Mustafa Suleyman, discussing the AI wave, envisions a future where intelligence becomes just as accessible, akin to a commodity—affordable, widespread, and empowering everyone to be smarter and more productive.

Vasant Dhar, a professor at NYU's Stern School and co-director of the Ph.D. program at the Center for Data Science, echoes this sentiment. He believes that pre-trained language models have shifted AI from being a specialized application to a versatile, general-purpose technology. This transformation is making intelligence itself a commodity, adaptable to various tasks, much like electricity powering an array of functions.

Drawing a parallel to the ubiquitous nature of electricity in our lives, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai emphasizes that AI's impact will be even more profound. According to The Guardian, Suleyman anticipates that AI will play a pivotal role in discovering groundbreaking drugs, diagnosing rare diseases, managing warehouses, optimizing traffic, and even designing sustainable cities. The potential, it seems, is boundless.

A Change Is Coming

The transformative potential of AI for businesses is now widely acknowledged. It is poised to revolutionize operations by enhancing efficiency, productivity, and cost-effectiveness, and creating novel opportunities. Gen AI, in particular, is making significant strides in various domains. It is currently employed to craft personalized marketing campaigns, produce creative content, and automate customer service functions. Additionally, it aids creators in accelerating their workflow, from initial brainstorming to actual development.

Gen AI has already established itself as a proficient content editor and is continually improving its writing capabilities. Linguistic experts find it increasingly challenging to distinguish AI-generated content from human-authored text. Furthermore, Gen AI is on track to become an exceptional educator. As Sal Khan, the founder of Khan Academy, points out, this technology has the potential to serve as a personalized tutor for every student, shaping the future of education.

Describing the impact of AI as merely a "wave" might be an understatement; some have likened it to a full-blown tsunami. Suleyman argues that AI signifies a profound shift in human capability and society, ushering in both enormous innovations and risks.

Emil Skandul, the founder of Capitol Foundry, a digital innovation firm, believes that a tidal wave is poised to engulf the global economy. While this could potentially elevate living standards, enhance productivity, and expedite economic opportunities, he emphasizes that a rosy future is far from guaranteed.

Undoubtedly, the drawbacks of this AI surge are substantial, encompassing issues like deepfakes and the widespread dissemination of misinformation on a global scale. For instance, there are reports suggesting that China is utilizing AI-generated images in attempts to influence U.S. and Canadian voters.

Thunamis are Huge and Disruptive

Despite being in its early stages, the influence of gen AI on the job landscape looms large. Sundar Pichai recently expressed his concerns about the impact of AI on employment in a Wired interview, stating, "I worry about whether AI displaces or enhances the labor market. There will be sectors where it will act as a disruptive force." The Legal profession is already coping with this issue as AI can write a legal agreement with all its complexities within minutes.

Accenture's research reveals that approximately 40% of all working hours stand to be affected by Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4. Insights from Goldman Sachs indicate that gen AI holds the potential to automate as much as 26% of tasks in fields such as arts, design, entertainment, media, and sports.

Venture firm Sequoia Capital goes further, suggesting that with the advent of this technology, "every industry that relies on human creativity — spanning from social media to gaming, advertising to architecture, coding to graphic design, product design to law, marketing to sales — is poised for transformation."

According to McKinsey's projections, a substantial 12 million Americans are expected to transition to different fields of work by the year 2030 due to these developments. Furthermore, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) asserted that over a quarter of jobs within the OECD rely on skills that could be readily automated.

While much of the anticipated impact on jobs is yet to materialize, the conflicts arising from this rapid change are already surfacing. AI plays a central role in the ongoing strikes involving Hollywood actors and writers, serving as clear indicators of the disruptions brought about by this technology. It's likely that we'll witness many more instances of such disruptions in the future.

How the Deal with a Tsunami...

As a society, we have not only adapted to the Information Age, but we've also grappled with its consequences, both positive and negative. Over the course of several decades, the advantages and drawbacks of this technological leap have become increasingly evident, even though the subject remains a topic of vigorous debate. Now, we find ourselves on the brink of even more profound transformations brought about by the impact of AI and the commoditization of intelligence.

In a recent episode of the Plain English podcast, health and science writer Brad Stulberg delved into the various ways individuals respond to change. Stulberg, the author of "Master of Change," explored the concept of "allostasis," a notion derived from complex systems theory that offers valuable insights. Allostasis pertains to a system's capacity to dynamically stabilize itself in the face of disruptions. Unlike the concept of homeostasis, where a system aims to return to its previous state as swiftly as possible after a disturbance, allostasis embraces a more adaptive and flexible approach to change.

Allostasis entails a system's transformation from order to disorder to reorder, ultimately achieving a new equilibrium, a fresh normal. Importantly, it does not revert to a past state, as is the case with homeostasis. An illustrative instance of allostasis can be observed in our collective response to the aftermath of COVID-19. While work-related efforts persist, the traditional norm of commuting to the office has, for many, evolved into a hybrid work model. Likewise, brick-and-mortar retail has continued to give way to the dominance of online commerce.

For individual human beings, Stulberg elucidates that allostasis signifies the ability to maintain stability amidst change. To achieve this, he contends that individuals must cultivate what he terms "rugged flexibility" to navigate change most effectively. In essence, people must learn to exhibit strength in holding onto what remains valuable while also demonstrating adaptability by embracing what is new. Traditionally, we've tended to lean towards one approach or the other. However, Stulberg argues that now, more than ever, we need to master the art of balancing both aspects.

When It Hits... Which Is About Now

While the possibility of another AI winter, where the technology falls short of expectations, cannot be ruled out entirely, it's becoming increasingly evident that an AI tsunami is on the horizon. As such, it is imperative to prepare for impending changes, both at the individual and societal levels. This entails a willingness to acquire new skills, including the utilization of the latest-gen AI tools, and an adaptability to evolving approaches.

We must all cultivate a robust flexibility to effectively navigate these shifts. This entails embracing change and personal growth, even when faced with substantial disruptions. In the midst of the impending AI tsunami, the goal isn't merely survival but rather mastering the art of riding the wave and flourishing in a radically transformed world.