Do Not write the USA off just yet.....

Many, including myself, have predicted the collapse of the greenback for some time now.... the war in Ukraine changed everything and Putin's hell-bent fiasco war has changed the world political landscape for some time to come.... the big winner?… the US!

From many perspectives, it is assumed that the United States will cease to be a superpower and be far less important than the fast-rising nations in Asia. It is here that the historical perspective should be looked at and analyzed. By simply going with the logic that India and China were the world’s two largest economies before colonialism in the late 1600s one would automatically assume that historical cycles are simply correcting themselves back to this period, but technological change, energy sources, and the inevitable transition to some level of space travel cannot be ignored. 

While it is true, the end of colonialism and the end of the exploitation of nations like India and China has led to rapid industrialization. Both China and India are now key players in the international arena. Technological implementation has taken place in both nations, but the invention of new products has not happened in a meaningful way in either nation yet. This is not to say that it shall not in the coming decades as certainly, this will be the next stage of the re-emergence of these two Ancient Civilizations.

However, the time period of their re-emergence takes away from their ability to become actual “Super Powers” in the sense which defined the United States and the Soviet Union in the 20th century. In particular, the Superpower designation defined the U.S. as the leader of all Democratic Nations and defender of human rights throughout the world. The U.S. before the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, did from the end of World War II in 1945 until 2003 live up to much of this cause, even in moments of failure, there was never a clear-cut falsehood that could not be looked at another way. 

For until this point the U.S. had not fought outright wars not based on reasons which were to some level morally justified. Thus, the period after 2003 has seen a negation in the way that the U.S. is perceived in large parts of the world. And this has been far more costly than any fall in economic strength as this is still very present. 

The election of former President Obama, President Donald Trump, and now President Biden, have failed to bring back the legitimacy of U.S. foreign policy. During the time of President Trump even U.S. economic policies which since 1945 called for a world without protectionism and the free travel of people were reduced to a message of protectionism and barriers for free trade. 

Thus the world order which had been built by a unique vision coming from the U.S. in the post-colonial era was lost. President Biden has so far not shown dynamic economic policy direction. Past U.S. vision may not have been fair to the developing world and much of it was based on the U.S. controlling the development of nations around the world.

But this order of two Superpowers insured that there was political balance, and U.S.-backed economic trade enabled much of Asia to rise from World War II. Those nations which closed their economies did get left behind, and a clear case was seen for capitalism.

As the cold war ended, and protectionism ended in much of the world, another leap of economic growth occurred. The exceptions to this were regions of the former Soviet Union and much of Africa was left out of this growth. Since 2003, growth patterns completely changed in the world. For after this period India would nearly triple its economic size and China would nearly 5-fold itself. The U.S. would become mired in unwinnable wars in Afghanistan and Iraq which have now gone on decades. 

Africa also would finally begin the process of population growth and economic expansion. The economic windfall of controlling Iraqi oil has not even been enough to pay for the price of the war and the long-term Geo-Political problems created. The U.S. even after making such blunders still remains the world’s sole Super Power. China will not be able to eclipse the U.S. military might even in 100 years.

China has not fully mastered the making of the C.P.U. necessary for the development of high-tech warfare. At best it is a decade away from this capacity. The U.S. is well aware of this and it will not simply allow this to happen. Russia is also developing more high-technology weaponry as it has re-emerged as a lesser power in the past 15 years. Russia also does not want to share its technology fully with China, as its economy depends on its ability to sell weapons. India lacks a credible Fighter Jet and High Tech weaponry production channel. It will take decades to set this up in India, and until then India will remain the most powerful nation in South Asia and the Middle East. 

India will eventually become a global power, but it is not looking to be a Super Power and be to be encumbered by what this entails, as it will by then be a prosperous nation for the first time since colonialism. Russia simply does not have a large enough economy nor population growth to support Super Power ambitions like the Soviet Union had. This does not mean however that it will not be more significant in 100 years than it is already. 

Russia can and will continue to enhance its weapon-producing abilities and other than the United States it is the only nation to possess complete supply chains to produce its own defense equipment. India has shown the ability to not only produce vaccines but also to manufacture them in massive quantities for the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic which began in Wuhan, China. The rapid development of effective vaccines was clearly an effort led by the U.S. and India, production of Vaccines was a cause India has excelled at. However, the effort was not synchronized as the U.S. initially refused to release essential base ingredients when India experienced the height of its crisis with COVID-19 in 2021. This policy was later reversed. The potential for greater cooperation is a necessity in ending the pandemic.

Economically, the U.S. is seeing a reduced share of Global G.D.P., yet even with this reduction, the U.S. will remain a the top three economies for the next 100 years. Both India and China may one day have equal or larger economies but the incredibly large populations in both nations will not raise the living standards to absolute parity with the U.S. Those predicting the doom of the United States are very much overestimating its decline. On the other end of the spectrum, those predicting continued dominance of the world economy by the U.S. are equally overestimating their position. 

The reality is that there will not be another Super Power like the U.S. or Soviet Union i
n the 20th Century. Rather the world will go back to its norm before 1700, and there will be multiple power centers and economic powers which collaborate and trade with each other. Equality in terms of weapon production will also occur in 100 years more so than today, the very presence of assured mutually destructive third or fourth-generation Atomic weapons will ensure that conflicts may well not be waged on Earth anymore. For it is very likely in 100 years, most large economies will have colonies on other planets and the debate of superpower status will have an altogether different meaning, and one which we simply cannot describe today.